● Lead storyPolitics · US Midterms 2026
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms — traders make Democrats Sweep the favourite at 69%.
Countries involved
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · What the world is betting on
$18.5M 24h volume67 countries1,861 live Polymarket markets
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#2 by volumeIran
24h volume$4.2M
Markets104
Conflict risk64%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?$872K 24h · closes Oct 2298%▲11US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?$390K 24h · closes Oct 2492%▲9US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$282K 24h · closes Oct 3177%▲8
All Iran markets →Hover a country · click to pin
The wire
Al Jazeera and BBC, linked to live markets21m
BBC News · War & GeopoliticsUnited States, Ukraine · 2 markets
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for SpaceXAI / Elon Musk by December 31?4%0Trade →41m
Al Jazeera · War & GeopoliticsChina
1h
Al Jazeera · PoliticsSerbia · 4 markets
Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?16%▼9Trade →1h
Al Jazeera · War & GeopoliticsTurkey
1h
Al Jazeera · War & GeopoliticsIran
2h
Al Jazeera · War & GeopoliticsTurkey
2h
BBC News · PoliticsUnited States · 2 markets
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?16%▼5Trade →3h
BBC News · PoliticsUnited States · 3 markets
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?97%0Trade →3h
Al Jazeera · War & GeopoliticsIsrael, Palestine · 1 market
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?4%0Trade →4h
Al Jazeera · EconomyIran, United States · 4 markets
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?5%0Trade →4h
BBC News · War & GeopoliticsUkraine, Russia · 3 markets
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?77%▼3Trade →4h
Al Jazeera · War & GeopoliticsSouth Africa
4h
BBC News · War & GeopoliticsGermany, Russia
5h
BBC News · PoliticsBrazil · 4 markets
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?31%▼1Trade →5h
Al Jazeera · War & Geopolitics
5h
Al Jazeera · War & GeopoliticsSyria
5h
BBC News · War & GeopoliticsSouth Africa
5h
Al Jazeera · War & GeopoliticsIsrael, Palestine · 4 markets
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?12%▲1Trade →6h
See markets for any article →Market Finder for ChromeAl Jazeera · War & GeopoliticsItaly, Spain
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The desks
Politics384 markets · $8M2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House8%2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House69%Open Politics →Economy253 markets · $3.5MWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?94%Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?6%Open Economy →War & Geopolitics431 markets · $6.9MUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?98%Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?29%Open War & Geopolitics →